{ "title": "Türkiye sovereign-compute commercial evidence, 2026", "as_of": "2026-07-29", "currency": "USD", "status": "screening evidence; no bankable Karadag anchor contract", "sources": [ { "id": "truba-private-institution-tariff-2026", "organization": "TÜBİTAK ULAKBİM / TRUBA", "title": "TRUBA Hizmetlerinden Özel Kurumlar için HSB ve VSB Hizmeti 2026", "url": "https://docs.truba.gov.tr/4-proje_hesaplari_ucretli_kullanim/ozel_kurumlar/ozel-hsbvsb-2026.html", "modified": "2026-03-12", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "document_sha256": "6429a9ec12b8992f4dfdbd6dea004321758f6e8d3df6a46316becbb9e017b853", "classification": "official public-service tariff", "limitations": [ "Resource availability and the user's calculation must be confirmed before contracting.", "The tariff supports project-oriented use of TRUBA resources and is not a Karadag procurement award.", "Prices exclude 20% VAT.", "At least 1 TB of storage must be priced with compute.", "GPU users must price every CPU core in each requested GPU node." ] }, { "id": "tcmb-usd-2026-01-02", "organization": "Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye", "title": "Indicative Exchange Rates Announced on 02/01/2026", "url": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/202601/02012026.xml", "date": "2026-01-02", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "classification": "official exchange rate", "limitations": [ "The decision-date conversion is not a forecast of future USD/TRY.", "USD forex selling is used to convert a TRY-denominated customer cost to USD." ] }, { "id": "nvidia-dgx-h100", "organization": "NVIDIA", "title": "NVIDIA DGX H100 datasheet", "url": "https://www.nvidia.com/content/dam/en-zz/Solutions/Data-Center/nvidia-dgx-h100-datasheet.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-07-28", "classification": "primary vendor specification", "limitations": [ "Maximum system power is a nameplate normalization basis, not measured average power.", "The system specification does not establish Karadag's deployed hardware mix." ] }, { "id": "uk-gcloud-h100-2024", "organization": "UK Government Digital Marketplace / Civo", "title": "G-Cloud 14 H100 GPU pricing document", "url": "https://assets.applytosupply.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud-14/documents/721636/494853920791033-pricing-document-2024-05-05-1640.pdf", "date": "2024-05-05", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "classification": "official marketplace list price", "limitations": [ "This is a UK public marketplace list price, not a Türkiye award or Karadag contract.", "The monthly reserved product must not be multiplied by physical utilization if the full reservation is billed." ] }, { "id": "ecb-gbp-eur-2024-05-03", "organization": "European Central Bank / Banca d'Italia", "title": "Euro foreign exchange reference rates, 3 May 2024", "url": "https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/operazioni-cambi/cambio/cambi_rif_20240503/?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1", "date": "2024-05-03", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "classification": "official exchange rate", "limitations": [ "Reference rate, not a transaction rate or future currency forecast." ] }, { "id": "aws-h100-capacity-2026", "organization": "Amazon Web Services", "title": "EC2 Capacity Blocks for ML pricing", "url": "https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/capacityblocks/pricing/", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "classification": "primary vendor list price", "limitations": [ "This is a public capacity-block list price, not a Türkiye award or Karadag contract.", "A fully reserved capacity block is billed independently of achieved physical utilization." ] }, { "id": "ecb-usd-eur-2025-06-02", "organization": "European Central Bank", "title": "Euro foreign exchange reference rates history", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist.xml", "date": "2025-06-02", "retrieved": "2026-07-29", "classification": "official exchange rate", "limitations": [ "Reference rate, not a transaction rate or future currency forecast." ] }, { "id": "coreweave-10k-2025", "organization": "CoreWeave / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "title": "CoreWeave 2025 Form 10-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000104/crwv-20251231.htm", "date": "2026-03-02", "retrieved": "2026-07-28", "classification": "audited public-company filing", "limitations": [ "The approximately five-year weighted-average committed-contract duration supports a contract-structure reference only.", "Take-or-pay disclosure does not provide a transferable minimum-bill percentage or Karadag price." ] } ], "native_inputs": { "truba": { "billing_month_days": 30, "billing_year_days": 360, "h100_core_hour_try": 3.02, "h200_core_hour_try": 5.17, "cores_per_gpu_node": 64, "gpus_per_node": 4, "minimum_storage_tb": 1, "storage_tb_hour_try": 1.87, "vat_rate": 0.2, "official_example": { "gpu_type": "H100", "gpu_count": 8, "node_count": 2, "duration_days": 120, "duration_hours": 2880, "total_core_hours": 368640, "compute_cost_try_ex_vat": 1113292.8, "storage_cost_try_ex_vat": 5385.6, "total_cost_try_ex_vat": 1118678.4 } }, "fx": { "date": "2026-01-02", "try_per_usd_forex_buying": 42.881, "try_per_usd_forex_selling": 42.9582, "selected_rate": "forex selling" }, "hardware_power": { "system": "NVIDIA DGX H100", "gpu_count": 8, "maximum_system_power_kw": 10.2 } }, "derived_comparators": [ { "id": "truba-h100-eight-gpu-project-rate", "evidence_class": "calculation from official public-service tariff", "billing_basis": "usage-based project service", "native_formula": "(128 cores × TRY 3.02/core-hour + 1 TB × TRY 1.87/TB-hour) ÷ 8 GPUs", "try_per_gpu_hour_ex_vat": 48.55375, "usd_formula": "TRY 48.55375/GPU-hour ÷ TRY 42.9582/USD", "usd_per_gpu_hour_ex_vat": 1.130255690415334, "monthly_formula": "USD 1.130255690415334/GPU-hour × 720 hours", "usd_per_gpu_month_ex_vat": 813.7840970990405, "power_density_formula": "USD 813.7840970990405/GPU-month ÷ (10.2 kW ÷ 8 GPUs)", "usd_per_it_kw_month_ex_vat": 638.262036940424, "model_use": "Türkiye downside and subsidized-capacity substitution comparator only", "not_model_use": "bankable Karadag revenue, sovereign premium, or proof of 120 MW availability" }, { "id": "truba-h200-eight-gpu-project-rate", "evidence_class": "calculation from official public-service tariff", "billing_basis": "usage-based project service", "native_formula": "(128 cores × TRY 5.17/core-hour + 1 TB × TRY 1.87/TB-hour) ÷ 8 GPUs", "try_per_gpu_hour_ex_vat": 82.95375, "usd_formula": "TRY 82.95375/GPU-hour ÷ TRY 42.9582/USD", "usd_per_gpu_hour_ex_vat": 1.9310341215414055, "model_use": "native-unit Türkiye downside and substitution comparator only", "not_model_use": "IT-kW normalization without a matched H200 system-power source" }, { "id": "uk-gcloud-h100-reserved-density", "evidence_class": "calculation from official marketplace list price", "billing_basis": "monthly reserved service", "native_price_gbp_per_eight_gpu_month": 14400, "gbp_per_usd_reference_date": 0.7964724497393894, "fx_date": "2024-05-03", "formula": "GBP 14,400/month ÷ 0.7964724497393894 GBP/USD ÷ 10.2 kW", "usd_per_it_kw_month": 1772.5217066130674, "model_use": "external list-price sensitivity", "not_model_use": "Karadag contract price or usage-adjusted revenue without an explicit billing assumption" }, { "id": "aws-h100-capacity-block-density", "evidence_class": "calculation from primary vendor list price", "billing_basis": "reserved capacity block", "native_price_usd_per_eight_gpu_hour": 37.76, "hours_per_month": 730, "fx_date": "2025-06-02", "formula": "USD 37.76/hour × 730 hours ÷ 10.2 kW", "usd_per_it_kw_month": 2702.4313725490197, "model_use": "external upside list-price sensitivity", "not_model_use": "Karadag contract price or usage-adjusted revenue without an explicit billing assumption" } ], "model_controls": { "keep_sovereign_premium_at_zero": true, "separate_physical_utilization_from_minimum_bill": true, "do_not_apply_physical_utilization_to_fully_reserved_price": true, "reject_unsupported_contracted_share_times_utilization_formula": true, "require_explicit_initial_contract_term": true, "require_explicit_post_contract_repricing_or_zero_revenue": true, "do_not_book_public_funding_or_free_compute_as_revenue": true }, "deep_research_package": { "research_method": "Research Stone deep research", "search_coverage_sites": 96, "archive_sha256": "e75121814c37ce10569fea94413721281edd00e0bd36e495add2cdb9dd833dd7", "relative_path": "projects/karadag-investor-data-room/papers/chatgpt-deep-research/20260728T220148Z-turkiye-sovereign-compute-commercial-evidence/downloads/package", "independent_audit": { "source_price_calculations": "reproduced", "workbook_formula_errors": 0, "semantic_exception": "Package calculation M-01 multiplies contracted share by physical utilization and therefore does not represent the production model's max(usage, contractual floor) billing rule.", "production_treatment": "Reject M-01 as a current-model formula; preserve it only as a specifically defined double-reduction sensitivity." } }, "open_gates": [ "Executed anchor-service term sheet with billable unit, hardware generation, capacity, ramp, term, minimum bill, SLA credits, indexation, renewal, and termination terms.", "Türkiye procurement award with both price numerator and billable-capacity-and-term denominator.", "Evidence that the selected accelerator generation and service bundle can earn the modeled price.", "Resource-availability confirmation before treating public or subsidized compute as accessible substitution capacity.", "Project-specific tax treatment, including recoverability of VAT." ] }