Data Analytics report
Decision-ready correction and long-horizon profitability report for the protected solar-coupled data center.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
30-year coupled NPV
€14.39BSource: Karadag production model and reviewed compute evidence
Discounted 30-year project value after all modeled operating cost, refresh, renewal, and capital spending.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Incremental cash multiple
9.82×Source: Karadag production model and reviewed compute evidence
Incremental lifetime net operating cash per euro of incremental capital, unlevered and undiscounted.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
30-year profitability index
3.41×Source: Karadag production model and reviewed compute evidence
Discounted revenue divided by discounted operating and capital cost at the selected hurdle rate.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Active IT hardware cost
€7.33M/IT MWSource: Karadag production model and reviewed compute evidence
Owner planning basis for Chinese-accelerator procurement; one-third of the prior H100 hardware proxy.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Lifetime compute revenue
€70.48BSource: Karadag production model and reviewed compute evidence
Undiscounted premium compute-service revenue across all 30 modeled operating years.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Compute service remains a productive revenue stream for the life of the facility. The model still carries grid energy, operations, active-IT refresh, facility renewal, and solar inverter replacement in their scheduled years; it no longer pairs those costs with an artificial revenue shutdown.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
| Project horizon | Coupled NPV (EUR) | Incremental cash multiple | Profitability index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 5.76B EUR | 4.46 | 2.32 |
| 20 years | 11.33B EUR | 7.41 | 3.08 |
| 30 years | 14.39B EUR | 9.82 | 3.41 |
| 40 years | 16.04B EUR | 11.61 | 3.57 |
| 50 years | 16.97B EUR | 14.44 | 3.66 |
Chinese data-center accelerators are an emerging procurement path. The chart isolates the financial effect of lower active-IT cost while holding the revenue, facility, energy, operations, and refresh logic constant. The one-third Base is an explicit owner planning assumption and must be replaced by qualified vendor bids before financial close.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
| Active-IT cost case | Coupled NPV (EUR) | Active-IT cost per MW | Incremental cash multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prior H100 proxy | 10.21B EUR | 22M EUR/IT MW | 4.05 |
| Two-thirds of prior | 12.3B EUR | 14.67M EUR/IT MW | 5.77 |
| Half of prior | 13.34B EUR | 11M EUR/IT MW | 7.29 |
| Owner base: one-third | 14.39B EUR | 7.33M EUR/IT MW | 9.82 |
The production engine uses max(physical utilization, contracted share × explicit minimum bill). This keeps physical energy use separate from revenue protection and prevents a reserved product from being discounted by utilization twice.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
| Billing interpretation | Annual service revenue (EUR/year) | Formula status | Formula | Decision use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage billing at 70% | 1.66B EUR/year | Usage | capacity × physical utilization × service price × 12 | Use when the service price is usage-dependent. |
| 80% reserved block | 1.9B EUR/year | Reserved | capacity × contractually billed share × service price × 12 | Use only when the reserved block is contractually billed. |
| 80% × 70% reduction | 1.33B EUR/year | Rejected | capacity × contracted share × utilization × price × 12 | Reject unless a contract explicitly defines both reductions. |
Civo and AWS use reserved or list-price structures and an unverified DGX power divisor. TRUBA is a capacity-limited public service that requires availability confirmation. The product, tax, service bundle, and power denominator remain visible.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
| Comparator and billing basis | Reviewed value | Decision use |
|---|---|---|
| aws-h100-capacity-block-density — reserved capacity block | €2366.61/IT kW-mo | external upside list-price sensitivity. Not permitted: Karadag contract price or usage-adjusted revenue without an explicit billing assumption. |
| truba-h100-eight-gpu-project-rate — usage-based project service | €544.19/IT kW-mo ex VAT | Türkiye downside and subsidized-capacity substitution comparator only. Not permitted: bankable Karadag revenue, sovereign premium, or proof of 120 MW availability. |
| truba-h200-eight-gpu-project-rate — usage-based project service | €1.6464/GPU-h ex VAT | native-unit Türkiye downside and substitution comparator only. Not permitted: IT-kW normalization without a matched H200 system-power source. |
| uk-gcloud-h100-reserved-density — monthly reserved service | €1649.78/IT kW-mo | external list-price sensitivity. Not permitted: Karadag contract price or usage-adjusted revenue without an explicit billing assumption. |
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
Reads the exact canonical report snapshot assembled from the production financial engine and normalized public-price evidence.
-- Read-only audit bridge for the canonical portable report snapshot.
--
-- The upstream calculations are executed by src/model.js and assembled by
-- scripts/build-sovereign-compute-report.mjs. This DuckDB query exposes the
-- exact reviewed rows embedded in artifact.json without recomputing or
-- changing their meaning.
WITH artifact AS (
SELECT snapshot.datasets AS datasets
FROM read_json_auto(
'projects/karadag-investor-data-room/research/reports/'
'sovereign-compute-commercial/artifact.json',
maximum_object_size = 10485760
)
)
SELECT
'headline' AS dataset_name,
to_json(datasets.headline) AS reviewed_rows
FROM artifact
UNION ALL
SELECT
'horizonOutcomes' AS dataset_name,
to_json(datasets.horizonOutcomes) AS reviewed_rows
FROM artifact
UNION ALL
SELECT
'hardwareSensitivity' AS dataset_name,
to_json(datasets.hardwareSensitivity) AS reviewed_rows
FROM artifact
UNION ALL
SELECT
'billingInterpretations' AS dataset_name,
to_json(datasets.billingInterpretations) AS reviewed_rows
FROM artifact
UNION ALL
SELECT
'comparators' AS dataset_name,
to_json(datasets.comparators) AS reviewed_rows
FROM artifact;