Karadag | Investor Data Room

INVESTMENT THESIS / 001

One energy asset.
Two value paths.

Compare a utility-scale solar export case with an integrated, mountain-protected data center serving premium cloud and AI workloads.

Lifetime ROI multiple — Coupled lifetime net cash per dollar of lifecycle capex

Incremental cash multiple — Incremental net operating cash per dollar of incremental capex

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INVESTMENT CASE

Scenario presets

PVGIS production, official 2025 PTF, owner-directed Chinese-accelerator procurement at one-third of the prior H100 hardware proxy, and premium compute-service revenue throughout the selected project life.

Solar baseline S01

— Lifetime net cash

NPV at selected hurdle: —
IRR: —
Payback: —
Cash multiple: —
Profitability index: —
LCOE: —

Solar + data center S02

— Lifetime net cash

NPV at selected hurdle: —
IRR: —
Payback: —
Cash multiple: —
Profitability index: —
Lifetime incremental capex: —

Energy architecture OPS

Solar generation year 1: —
Effective PUE: —
Cooling reduction: —

SOLAR RETURN CONTEXT

NPV is the value above or below the selected hurdle—not lifetime profit.

Lifetime net cash —

IRR versus hurdle —

Comparison-horizon NPV —

Calculating the solar return reconciliation…

HOW TO READ THE RETURNS

Absolute value and capital efficiency answer different questions.

NPV: How much discounted value is created, in dollars—not business size.
IRR: The annualized return implied by the timing of project cash flows.
Cash multiple: Lifetime net operating cash per dollar of capex, without discounting.
Profitability index: Discounted revenue per dollar of discounted total cost; above 1.00 creates value.
Payback: How long nominal cumulative project cash flow takes to recover investment.

Calculating the current return interpretation…

UNLEVERED CASH FLOW

Annual project cash flow

Solar only Coupled Capex event

Calculating the annual capital-event pattern…

STABILIZED ENERGY ROUTING

Potential hourly solar matching

—potential match

Potential direct: —
Billed grid export: —
Billed grid import: —

Hourly solar matching from a 2005–2023 PVGIS profile against a flat compute load at the selected utilization after the commissioning ramp. Only the approved direct-solar settlement percentage changes billed import and export; the conservative base is zero pending connection, metering, and legal approval. Storage, curtailment, outages, and grid constraints are not yet dispatched.

PVGIS 5.3 · KARADAG COORDINATE

Monthly solar production profile

PRIMARY DATA

—Annual mean

—At or below 20°C

—95th percentile

—Above 35°C

Fixed, optimally inclined crystalline-silicon system with 14% system loss at 37.181° N, 33.222° E. Long-run PVGIS-SARAH3 estimate using 2005–2023 meteorological data. The 18% passive cooling reduction is an owner-approved model basis. These temperatures inform equipment sizing and minor operating variation.

DECISION SNAPSHOT

What the model says now

Value created—

NPV scale ratio—

Potential direct solar share

Settled direct solar share

Physical utilization—

Billable utilization—

Avoided grid emissions—

Solar land area screen—

Evidence coverage—

Next investment gate Price the excluded land, grid, tunnel, fee, and security scopes and obtain contractable sovereign-compute terms.

LIFETIME COMPUTE ECONOMICS

Premium compute revenue continues for the full project life.

Revenue ramps with commissioned capacity and continues in every modeled operating year. There is no artificial compute-revenue cutoff.

LIFETIME REVENUE

—

— revenue-producing years

Stabilized annual service revenue —

Nominal premium compute revenue in the stabilized ramp year.

Final-year service revenue —

Compute revenue remains active through the final selected year.

Lifetime service revenue —

Undiscounted service revenue across all modeled operating years.

Sovereign-services uplift —

Editable premium applied to every year of compute-service revenue.

Coupled project NPV —

Discounted lifetime result at the selected hurdle rate.

Türkiye public H100 comparator $544/kW-mo

Derived from the official 2026 TRUBA private-institution tariff, minimum storage, TCMB FX, and DGX H100 maximum power. It is capacity-limited public-service evidence—not a Karadag price or proof of 120 MW availability.

Open calculation record Open commercial evidence report

CAPITAL WORK BREAKDOWN / NO DOUBLE COUNTING

What the initial build actually buys.

Facility construction and active IT equipment use separate evidence, operating costs, and replacement treatment.

Solar generation asset —

All-in screening allowance pending a reconciled split of plant, contribution, owner, land, grid, contingency, tax, and financing scope.

Protected facility —

Shell, electrical, mechanical, and the mountain premium—excluding active IT.

Active IT hardware —

Servers, accelerators, storage, and networking, using the owner-directed Chinese-hardware cost basis at one-third of the prior H100 proxy.

Gross target-build model capex —

Combined solar, protected-facility, and active-IT capital before conditional incentives.

Lifecycle cost account

Operating, renewal, and tariff assumptions.

Recurring costs and replacement events remain separate from the initial-build allocation above.

Commissioning ramp: —
Conditional HIT-30 AI hardware grant: —
Net target-build capex: —
Active IT refresh event: —
Refresh cycle: —
Facility renewal: —
Routine solar O&M: —
Solar land area screen: —
Variable grid stack: —
Solar export capture factor: —
Captured export price: —
Grid import timing factor: —
Time-adjusted grid energy: —
YEKDEM pass-through: —
Supplier / imbalance: —
Transmission incl. surcharge: —
Electricity-consumption tax: —
Approved direct-solar settlement: —
Fixed transmission tariff: —
Contracted grid demand: —
Annual fixed grid cost: —

Land price and legal rights, external utility works, professional fees, abnormal groundworks, and financing remain outside these inputs until project quotations are obtained.

ASSUMPTIONS LAB / LIVE MODEL

Stress the investment case.

Every control recalculates both scenarios. Values, including conditional incentive support, are illustrative screening assumptions.

DUE DILIGENCE / LIVE REGISTER

Risk before rhetoric.

Every key thesis is paired with an explicit uncertainty, owner action, and severity assessment.

—critical risks

—risks shown

20maximum score

Category	Risk	Score	Mitigation / next evidence

SOURCE PROVENANCE / REVIEWED 2026-07-30

Evidence ledger.

Primary inputs link back to their origin. Commercial assumptions remain visibly separated from sourced benchmarks.

Search sources

PROJECT LANGUAGE

Financial glossary.

Filter definitions

MODEL BOUNDARY / VERSION 1.0

Transparent by construction.

Real asset cash flows

Unlevered, pre-tax cash flow in USD with staged commissioning, degradation, fixed USD/kW-year solar O&M, separate export-price escalation, two-stage PPA pricing, split facility and active IT costs, an explicit conditional grant on initial AI hardware only, fixed and variable grid charges, inverter replacement, and six-year active IT refresh cycles.

Comparable scenarios

The coupled case retains the same solar asset, adds protected compute infrastructure, consumes available solar, and exports the balance.

Known exclusions

Debt, tax, batteries, constrained grid dispatch, monthly construction phasing, FX, land, permitting, water, network connectivity, and probabilistic risk remain future work.

Screening use only. This prototype is not investment, engineering, legal, security, or procurement advice. Independent diligence and sourced market inputs are required before a capital decision.